2050

13 Jan 2012 - The global research department of HSBC has released a report predicting the rise and fall of the world’s economies in the next 40 years. The world’s top economy in 2050 will be China, followed by the United States. No surprises there – since China’s reforms in the 1980s, economists have said it’s not a question of if, but when, China’s collective economic might will top the U.S. But among the smaller, developing nations, there are several surprises by HSBC prognosticators:
* By 2050, the Philippines will leapfrog 27 places to become the world’s 16^th largest economy.
* Peru’s economy, growing by 5.5% each year, jumping 20 places to 26^th place – ahead of Iran, Columbia and Switzerland. Other strong performers will be Egypt (up 15 places to 20th), Nigeria (up nine places to 37^th), Turkey (up six spots to 12^th), Malaysia (up 17 to 21^st) and the Ukraine (up 19 to 45^th).
* Japan’s working population will contract by a world-top 37% in 2050 – yet HSBC economists predict it will still be toward the top performing economies, dropping only one spot to the 4^th largest economy. India will jump ahead of Japan to 3^rd on the list.
* The big loser in the next 40 years will be advanced economies in Europe, HSBC predicts, who will see their place in the economic pecking order erode as working population dwindles and developing economies climb. Only five European nations will be in the top 20, compared to eight today.  Biggest drop will be felt northern Europe: Denmark to 56^th ( -29), Norway to 48^th ( -22), Sweden to 38^th (-20) and  Finland to 57^th (-19).