2050

13 Jan 2012 - The global research department of HSBC has released a report predicting the rise and fall of the world’s economies in the next 40 years. The world’s top economy in 2050 will be China, followed by the United States. No surprises there – since China’s reforms in the 1980s, economists have said it’s not a question of if, but when, China’s collective economic might will top the U.S. But among the smaller, developing nations, there are several surprises by HSBC prognosticators:
* By 2050, the Philippines will leapfrog 27 places to become the world’s 16^th largest economy.
* Peru’s economy, growing by 5.5% each year, jumping 20 places to 26^th place – ahead of Iran, Columbia and Switzerland. Other strong performers will be Egypt (up 15 places to 20th), Nigeria (up nine places to 37^th), Turkey (up six spots to 12^th), Malaysia (up 17 to 21^st) and the Ukraine (up 19 to 45^th).
* Japan’s working population will contract by a world-top 37% in 2050 – yet HSBC economists predict it will still be toward the top performing economies, dropping only one spot to the 4^th largest economy. India will jump ahead of Japan to 3^rd on the list.
* The big loser in the next 40 years will be advanced economies in Europe, HSBC predicts, who will see their place in the economic pecking order erode as working population dwindles and developing economies climb. Only five European nations will be in the top 20, compared to eight today.  Biggest drop will be felt northern Europe: Denmark to 56^th ( -29), Norway to 48^th ( -22), Sweden to 38^th (-20) and  Finland to 57^th (-19).

One Billion Apps

4 Jan. 2012 - I just bought my first-ever smartphone and started downloading Apps. Little did I know that I contributed to a new record! The BBC reports that for the first time in a single week, more than a billion apps have been downloaded, according to a study. Analytics firm Flurry said 1.2 billion apps were downloaded in the last week of December. Activity was buoyed by the facts that many users received new devices for Christmas and firms offered discounted apps over the holiday period. The US was responsible for nearly half of the downloads, followed by China and the UK. With 81 million downloads, the UK easily surpassed Canada (41 million), Germany (40 million) and France (40 million). It was beaten to second spot by China with 99 million downloads. The US was out ahead with 509 million. Flurry thinks this level of download activity will become more standard. "Looking forward to 2012, Flurry expects breaking the one billion download barrier per week will become more commonplace," the firm said. "While [Apple] iOS and [Google] Android growth continues to amaze, the market is still by all measures relatively nascent." Unsurprisingly, Christmas proved a boom time for device makers. Flurry estimated that nearly seven million Android devices and iPhones were activated on Christmas Day. Apple does not disclose such figures but Google confirmed that more than 3.7 million Android devices were activated over the Christmas weekend.

Grim Year Ahead

2 Jan 2012 - It is only the second day of the year, but the optimistic feelings linked to new beginnings are already fading.  European leaders have warned of a difficult year ahead, as many economists predict recession in 2012. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Europe was experiencing its "most severe test in decades" but that Europe was growing closer in the debt crisis. France's President Sarkozy said the crisis was not finished, while Italy's president called for more sacrifices. Growth in Europe has stalled as the debt crisis has forced governments to slash spending.No doubt, these trends will also have a negative impact on growth in Asia and elsewhere. The leaders' new year messages came as leading economists polled by the BBC said they expected a return to recession. The cost of borrowing for some of the eurozone's largest economies, including Italy and Spain, has shot up in recent months as lenders fear governments will not be able to pay back money they have already borrowed. With growth stalled, the pressure is on governments across Europe, not just ones using the single currency, to cut spending in order to meet debt obligations. Fears are now focusing on a potential second credit crunch, triggered by the exposure of banks across Europe to Italy's huge debt. So once more, Happy New Year?

Anti-Advertising

16 Aug 2011 -  A French organic farmer has forked out 3,000 euros (4,300 dollars) for a series of billboard advertisements that denounce the evils of advertising. Twenty-five of the giant ads went up this week across the southwestern town of Agen showing a human brain stuffed with advertising images and carrying the slogan "Advertising is manipulating you - React!" Fifty-six-year-old farmer Pierre Kung explained that he was implementing the martial arts technique of "using the strength of the adversary to floor him. My aim is simply to get people to ask themselves questions. Because we've been brainwashed into thinking that happiness lies in consuming ever more," he told AFP. Kung said he sympathised with but was not a member of an 'anti-advertising' militant group in Paris who attack billboards and other advertising they say blight the landscape and render the population consumerist sheep.

Tweeting for Dollars

7 April 2011 - Twitter may not yet have found a way to make money for itself but it is doing a good job of generating cash for its users, research suggests. A study conducted by a PhD student at the Technical University of Munich found that investors following stock market tweets could have achieved an average return rate of 15%. Timm Sprenger analysed 250,000 tweets sent over a six-month period. He predicts Twitter will increasingly offer specialised information to users. Thousands of stock-related messages are sent every day via tweets. Tweeting investors mark tweets according to company stock symbols. There was "a striking co-ordination" between what Twitter was saying about shares and other information from investors and analysts, he found. "I don't think it is the Holy Grail to make millions but it is a very credible and legitimate source," he said. He also found that more valuable information was retweeted, meaning that it reached a wider audience. The study formed the basis of the website TweetTrader.net where the real-time sentiment for individual stocks can be accessed. The site is currently in beta (trial).

American Idol Dollars

21 March 2011 - American Idol made more money from advertising revenue than any other US TV show in 2010, according to a survey by Forbes magazine. The singing contest raked in an estimated $7.1m (£4.4m) every half hour during its last series. Far behind in second place was Charlie Sheen's former comedy show Two and A Half Men, with $2.9m (£1.8m). Data was taken from Kantar Media, who surveyed all regular prime time shows, excluding sports events. American Idol's 2010 figures were down $1m (£620,000) on the previous year. Simon Cowell was still on the judging panel in the last series, accompanied by Ellen DeGeneres, Kara DioGuardi and Randy Jackson. Following Charlie Sheen's sacking from Two and A Half Men, it remains to be seen whether the show can continue to generate as much revenue, Kantar's Jon Swallen said. "The show is built around the interplay between two contrasting characters," Mr Swallen said. "If you remove one, it fundamentally makes it a different show. If it comes back on the air there will be a curiosity factor but after a few episodes it will have to rise or fall on its own merit. "Desperate Housewives was in third place with an estimated $2.74m (£1.7m), with medical drama Grey's Anatomy at four with $2.67m.

Fake euros

29 Jan 2011 - The value of the euro may have come under pressure in recent months, but there os some good news for the European currency as the production of counterfeit notes and coins remains relatively low. The European Commission said this week that the number of counterfeit euro coins removed from circulation last year rose 8% to 186,000. But the number of fake notes withdrawn by officials dropped 12,6% to 751,000. So while the total number of coins may have risen their total value was only about EUR 300,000, and the value of counterfeit euro notes came to about EUR 30 million. Those are small sums when compared with the total value of euro notes and coins in circulation, which was about EUR 860 billion  in 2010. The EUR 2 coin remains the favourite for counterfeiters, representing three of every four fake euro coins. Among banknotes phony EUR 20 and 50 bills are most common. So please take note during your next trip to the Eurozone.

Computer Crash

29 Nov 2010 - We seldom realize that in a 10 - 15 years time frame we have become almost completely dependent on the computer, so its mayhem and chaos when the computer fail. A freak computer glitch at Australia's biggest bank froze cash machines and left millions of people struggling to access their money. National Australia Bank said a corrupted file wiped out a huge number of transactions , including salary payments and transfers, and crashed some ATMs, angering many customers who were facing a weekend without money. Telford dais that the rogue file knocked out transactions on Wednesday, and the work to fix the problem hit Thursday and Friday. As the electrionic system buckled, some ATMs had crashed, but the bank did not reveal how many. "we are very apologetic", said a spokesperson for the bank.

Supermarket Selling

10 Nov 2010 - Every day we go to the supermarket, we buy something and we leave. It may sound as suimple as that, but there is a whole system at work to motivate us to buy more more more. The supermarkets prefer us to shop using a trolley as it looks rather empty with only one or two items and the impulse may be to buy more. The milk is placed at the back, so we have to pass many temptations to get there and walk to the cashier. We find some small items like chocolates and chewing at the cashier, as we may buy them on an impulse. And make no mistake: the most expensive items are placed at eye level, so we notice them easily and may not search the shelves for cheaper varieties. The free sampling and specific events are of course also only designed with the only purpose in mind to let us buy more. There is nothing wrong with all these marketing tricks, but I am sure many people are not aware of them. Is that manipulation?

Lehman Memorabilia

5 Oct 2010 - There was only limited interest to buy Lehman Brothers after it failed two years ago and became the most prominent victim of the 2008 financial tsunami. However, there was an enormous appetite for Lehman memorabilia and its collection of art at a recent auction in London. Bankers came in search of a souvenir, and art lovers saw the opportunity to purchase for a bargain price. The total auction raised USD 2,5 million and many bidders were former Lehman staff. One of the highlights of the auction was selling the large metal nameplate that formerly hung at the London headquarters of the bank. It was sold by an anonymous telephone buyer for HKD 515,596. Other items that did well were an 1870 collection of the works of William Shakespeare and  two etching by Lucian Freud.

Down Down and Down

29 April 2010 - Seven years ago, when I arrived in Hong Kong in times of SARS and political chaos, I needed to pay USD 0.85 for EUR 1. The Euro started its magnificent rise soon after and two years ago, I had to pay almost USD 1,60 for the Euro. The Hong Kong Dollar is pegged to the USD, and I still have expenses in Euro, so it is not difficult to understand that poor little me got only poorer and poorer. Recently however, the Euro dipped (it's now at about USD 1,32). And of course I hope it will go down, down, and down even further. Until recently, everything went well, because the stock market shot up, so my few humble saving increased in value. But now everything has changed again: the Hang Seng is going down, down and down again. Maybe I will soon have to sleep under the bridge.